The benefits of the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine partnership will start to be seen in 2027, earlier than widely assumed, by boosting deterrence and increasing the number of submarines in the western Pacific able to respond to a crisis, a report says.
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Under the AUKUS program, Australia, Britain and the US will work to transfer a fleet of eight nuclear-powered and conventionally armed submarines to Australia by 2050.
With a $US244 billion ($A372 billion) price tag for Australia over three decades, AUKUS gained US approval to share sensitive technology in December.
Yet doubts have been raised about the practicality of Australia's most expensive defence project, the report by defence analyst Ross Babbage at the Lowy Institute think tank said.
Many of the strategic benefits for regional deterrence kick in from 2027, when five nuclear-powered submarines, with joint Australian, British and US crews, begin routine operations from Australia to boost training, Monday's report said.
By the middle of the next decade, AUKUS partners will have doubled the number of forward-deployed allied nuclear submarines that could operate in the first 10 days of a western Pacific crisis, it added.
The submarines based in Australia would reach a conflict theatre faster than those in Hawaii or San Diego, and are beyond Chinese missile range, unlike US bases in Guam or Japan, it said.
The cost of the AUKUS program to Australia will average $A10 billion a year, lifting defence spending to between 2.5 per cent and 3 per cent of gross domestic product from 2 per cent, which Babbage said was not high compared with Australia's historical defence spending, or the spending of its security partners.
Australia will buy up to three US Virginia class submarines in the early 2030s, although a new class of Australian-built AUKUS submarines is not expected until early 2040.
"Because of AUKUS, the prospect of Australia needing to stand alone in the face of coercion or military attacks - a recurring nightmare since the Second World War - is now almost inconceivable," Babbage wrote in the report.
Australian Associated Press
