The CFMEU crisis could delay regional Victoria's biggest construction projects including hospital redevelopments, according to union officials.
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Union members from across Victoria spoke anonymously because they didn't have approval to make a public statement.
They said "at the moment everything is continuing as usual", but there could be serious "flow on effects" for current and future projects in the regions as the government cracked down on the CFMEU.
Could 'create chaos' for the building sector
The CFMEU has been accused of having deep underworld links, with media allegations of corruption, kickbacks, thuggery and other criminal behaviour.
RMIT industrial law expert Anthony Forsyth said one of the options for federal Workplace Relations minister Tony Burke was to deregister the union.
Professor Forsyth said deregistration would be a "drastic step" with harsh consequences for ordinary CFMEU members.
"Their awards and enterprise agreements would no longer apply, creating chaos for the building sector," he said.
The union members who spoke to ACM said some CFMEU members could still find coverage with another union under the Australian Council of Trade Unions but many wouldn't have an obvious fallback.
"The plumbers could be covered by PPTEU and electricians by the ETU, but it's not clear where others like carpenters or plasterers would go," they said.
"The only obvious one would be the AWU but that's complicated by the left right divide, so that would be messy."
There are a range of current and upcoming major projects with CFMEU sites across regional Victoria, including the Warrnambool Base Hospital redevelopment, Ballarat Base Hospital redevelopment, Bacchus Marsh bridge remediation, Albury Wodonga Regional Hospital redevelopment and several wind farm developments.
'Much more scrutiny'
The CFMEU believes deregistration isn't on the table as an option. Professor Forsyth said the more likely option was for the government to appoint an external administrator to run the union.
"That's the likely scenario in Victoria and maybe NSW too," Professor Forsyth said.
"But there's still a bit to play out because that has to be by order of the Federal Court, so there's a legal process to go through before that happens."
The national leadership of the CFMEU has already put the Victorian branch into voluntary administration, with an external law firm taking the reins while officials are investigated.
But Fair Work Commission general manager Murray Furlong said on July 17 he was seeking legal advice on appointing independent administrators to the union.
Professor Forsyth said in this scenario there would be much less interruption for members, compared to deregistration.
"I think the impact on members' day-to-day activity will be relatively minimal, because while the union is in administration all of the award and enterprise agreements for those members would remain in operation," he said.
"What might change is who they see day-to-day in terms of delegates and officials who might come to sites or mass meets and rallies."
This would mean minimal interruption to current construction projects, but Professor Forsyth said it could draw out future builds.
"For new projects, because of what has happened there might be much more scrutiny of the union in terms of what agreements are happening," he said.
"So it won't be entirely business as usual because of the extra scrutiny on what the union is doing, particularly relating to government funded projects."
Almost every significant construction project in regional Victoria is government funded. Professor Forsyth said the political fallout would likely add to the red tape in Victoria.
"Because this has created such a political dilemma for the Victorian government it will happen from both sides, from the regulator on the inside and from the government on the outside," he said.
'Up in the air'
The union members who spoke to ACM said things would likely be "up in the air" until late July.
They also emphasised the allegations were "not proven at this stage".
Ballarat Regional Trades and Labour Council secretary Brett Edgington said the safety of union members had to be the priority.
"The CFMEU Construction & General, like all unions, is its members," Mr Edgington said.
"Every member of the CFMEU C&G needs to know that their union has their safety and interests at heart, and pursues their needs with the utmost integrity, conviction and dedication."