'Game on': Nats leader declares agriculture a high-stakes election war zone

The protection of arable land will form a key plank of soon-to-be-finalised Coalition energy plans, being designed to offer a clear point-of-difference to Labor's renewables push that requires increased land clearing and demand on water resources.

Speaking with ACM-Agri, Nationals leader David Littleproud said the Coalition would also be seeking a reversal of fortune at the polls by undoing key Labor policies it believes have adversely impacted agriculture.

These include a previously stated intention to restore live sheep by sea exports following the government's recent decision to phase out the trade by 2028 and to reinstate the Ag Visa that was dismantled after its May 2022 election.

He said the Coalition would also axe plans for a Biosecurity Protection Levy, if it does find a way into law, in favour of a direct container levy on importers and cancel voluntary water buybacks and the recovery of an additional 450 gigalitres of water the government has introduced to help fulfil the Murray-Darling Basin Plan.

"There is going to be a big fight on agriculture and I think it is game on," Mr Littleproud said.

He said the rollout of wind and solar factories, and 28,000 kilometers of transmission lines across agricultural land, would also be short-circuited by a Coalition energy plan that was a mix of rooftop solar, gas and nuclear, and tested policies it took to the 2022 federal election.

"We would prefer solar panels to go into an environment they cannot spoil and that would be on rooftops, we are finalising what that would be and that is not far off," he said.

The party is also still finalising candidates but has identified several Labor seats where it believes it can claw back ground over energy, including divisions in northern New South Wales that would host controversial off-shore wind farms and the Hunter that "also opens itself up".

He believes the other moving state will be Western Australia, where Labor won an extra four seats in 2022, along with marginal seat campaigns in the Northern Territory and South Australia.

He also said Coalition internal polling of residents near where it planned to build nuclear plants were positive. Divisions were coal plants are scheduled to close in coming years are Gippsland in Victoria, Littleproud's Maranoa and Flynn in Queensland, O'Connor in WA and Hunter in NSW.

However, the elephant in the room is the impact of electoral redistributions, particularly through mortgage belts, that will reduce the number of House of Representative seats from 151 to 150 due to NSW and Victoria each losing a seat and one to be created in WA.

The change will then set the magic number of seats to form government at 76, with the Coalition then likely aiming for a minimum of 71 and hoping it could cobble together enough support from crossbenchers like Bob Katter, Rebekha Sharkie, Allegra Spender, Kate Chaney and Dai Li.

The impact of the Teals will also again likely shape the election, due to be held by May, while the Coalition banks on voters deserting "virtue-signalling" as the need to pay bills bites harder.

This all boils down to, while a first-term government has not lost a re-election for 93 years and a Labor victory is most likely, whoever wins will likely only form a minority government.

However, Mr Littleproud said the party was growing in confidence as the cost-of-living crisis deepened, "and the deeper this goes the more chance it will be us".

"All polling, whether it is ours or someone else's, is cost-of-living, cost-of-living, cost-of-living and voters just don't think the government is doing anything about it," he said.

"It is a big ask for us to win all those seats, but we shouldn't be where we are in terms of the numbers - to be close to 50-50 - they would be getting a bit concerned about that."

Following the Albanese government's third budget, handed down on May 14, Mr Littleproud also added fuel to speculation of an early election, "as early as the first or second week of December", believing the government had created options to get it through an electoral cycle that "has not been as palatable as they'd like it to be".

"It's probably now an even money bet that (Prime Minister Anthony Albanese) will go early based on being worried about what could happen," he said.

"He will be watching the economic data closely and the next three to four months will be critical in determining when the election will be.

"It has a feel to it, and it is just a feel, but from experience of what that looks like he has opened that up as an option.

"I don't think they will have another budget and risk the economists crawling all over it, but if the rate increase does not arrive and inflation is still high you would expect Labor to ride it out and hope things turn around.

"He is not just going to give up government, it is too hard to win."

The most basic explanation of Mr Littleproud's "option" is a perfect storm and moment of time of interest rates and inflation falling.

Along with budgetary measures introduced to ease cost-of-living pressures in a $300 energy rebate and stage three tax cuts kicking-in and reducing hip pocket stress.

Meanwhile, regional industries were at the centre of the government's $22.7 billion Future Made in Australia plan, which will support the development of clean energy sectors.

It is perhaps no coincidence that the threat of minority government has seen Labor pour a great slab of that funding into Queensland, where half the population live outside Brisbane and the party has traditionally performed poorly in federal elections.

And, despite having fired the stage three announcement and made in Australia bullets in the budget, Labor has headroom for sweeteners during the campaign and has shelved large sums of budget cash in the 'Decisions Made Without Announcements' cupboard.

Those decisions are likely to be large-scale renewable projects, like pumped hydro.

Meanwhile, Mr Littleproud said the Coalition's budget narrative was "nothing fancy" in getting "back to basics" on energy, competition, and housing policies.

"You don't have to spend billions of dollars to solve the nation's problems," he said. "You can pull the policy levers to save money and it will have just as big an impact," he said.