The cost of not acting on climate change 16 years ago when Sir Nicolas Stern and many others were arguing for strong action to reduce emissions is now very apparent in the central west of NSW, where I farm.
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There has been tragic loss of life in Eugowra and massive loss of livelihoods throughout our shire of Cabonne. This is a repeat of the tragic floods in southeast Queensland and northeast NSW earlier this year and follows on from the three-year drought which culminated in the black summer bushfires traumatising eastern Australia.
The cost of loss of life and property is obvious and long lasting for the people involved, but for the economy as a whole the myriad of production losses and inefficiencies are mounting up.
Farmers in the southwest of WA have experienced a decline in winter rainfall over the past 20 years. Farmers in the east have been on a whipsaw of floods to drought and fire and back again.
The costs of this are multifaceted.
Apart from the extreme personal stress caused by frequent severe droughts or disasters like fire and floods the remediation costs are immense.
The cost of rebuilding towns like Eugowra or refitting buildings three times in one year in Forbes or Molong is obvious, but local councils will be repairing roads for years to come and farmers will be replacing fences - which at $7 per metre, don't come cheap.
Less obvious is the reduction in productivity caused by climate change.
Yesterday we trucked out a load of cattle. To our relief, it didn't get bogged on the shire road which is impassable for cars, but did have to travel an extra 180 kilometres due to flooded roads.
Last year's harvest was damaged and heavily downgraded from a wet harvest. This year, harvest will not be possible for many central west farmers.
These reductions in productivity are happening in industries right across the economy with massive costs.
The cost of climate change will be felt much more harshly in poor countries already struggling to feed their people.
We are the lucky country, but we will have to think how to deal with the millions of displaced people who will want to find somewhere new to live.
On the other side of Sir Nicholas's equation is the cost of action to reduce emissions.
Brookfield Asset Management (which has recently sought to buy Origin Energy), Andrew Forrest and many other businesses see the task of reducing greenhouse gas emissions as a business opportunity rather than a cost.
This especially applies to Australia, as pointed out by Ross Garnaut in his book The Superpower Transition.
Australia has a huge opportunity to turn our sunlight into resources for the rest of the world by using renewable energy to produce liquid hydrogen as a high-density, emissions-free mobile fuel.
Dr Forrest has plans to use renewable energy to produce low emissions iron and steel in Australia which would be transformative for our economy relative to our current quarry-based model.
MORE OPINION:
The Australian meat industry is striving to reach net zero emissions by 2030 and is confident of reaching it. This effort is currently driven by improved feed use efficiency and carbon sequestration in the landscape.
The success of this vision will depend on finding some means to greatly reduce methane emissions from ruminants. Success will set Australian beef and lamb apart from the product of other countries.
This good news is tempered by the haste with which we have to pursue this transformation. This has to be managed by our governments.
From the nation's point of view, the challenges of the transformation have to be seen in the light of the trauma caused by climate-driven catastrophes that are occurring more frequently and the prospect for our economy to thrive into the 21st century and beyond.
- Rob Lee is a sheep and cattle farmer from Molong in central west NSW