A deluge expected between Thursday and Friday is likely to see riverine flooding along sections of the Peel River.
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At this stage the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has a flood watch in place for the Peel, Namoi, and Gwydir Rivers.
Tamworth Weather expert Dave Farrenden said he's already seen dams drained in preparation for rain.
However, he said this could actually exacerbate flooding.
![Dave Farrenden stands before heavy clouds passing over Tamworth. Picture by Peter Hardin Dave Farrenden stands before heavy clouds passing over Tamworth. Picture by Peter Hardin](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/177678904/1c287989-8f80-4fee-90db-b96894bba994.jpg/r0_0_5620_3747_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
"I have noticed at [Lake] Keepit, they have opened the [dam] gates up there, and let out 8000ML this morning," he said.
"That could potentially add to a flood downstream of Gunnedah.
"Especially with what's predicted to come over late tonight and tomorrow morning, they'll want to shut those gates quick because it could add to the flood."
In a statement late on Thursday afternoon, Water NSW confirmed that they would "cut water releases from key regional dams and will monitor inflows generated by the latest rain event to cross regional NSW."
According to Water NSW, Keepit Dam has reached 97 per cent capacity, Chaffey Dam sits at 100.5 per cent, and Split Rock Dam is 83.1 per cent.
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The BoM has predicted eight to 20mm of rain for Tamworth on Friday.
However, Mr Farrenden said it could be anywhere between 30 and 50mm over Thursday and Friday, according to his modelling.
Regarding possible flooding, Gunnedah is probably the most prominent area of concern at this stage, Mr Farrenden said.
He said that's because waters will swell in both the Mooki and Peel Rivers near Gunnedah, even if the Keepit Dam gates are closed.
"There's not a lot of change in the rivers. The rivers are pretty well steady," he said.
"And when you see a pretty steady flow in the rivers, it doesn't take much to put them up."
However, people in the Tamworth region probably won't get off scot free.
Mr Farrenden said there could be some small roads going under around town.
"There will be a lot of creeks going under, which will take a lot of roads out," he said.
"Potentially with riverine flooding you could see a lot more roads cut.
"But it's a bit hard to predict at this stage."
And this won't be the last potential flood for the season, as Mr Farrenden said there is another front expected to come through at the end of next week.
"We'll certainly see a few more come through, in fact we're watching another one that's forecast to move through Thursday-Friday next week," he said.
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