The sodden La Nina on hold for now but wet weather forecast to continue

The Bureau of Meteorology late Monday announced the very wet 2021-22 La Nina which brought the flooding rains and wet conditions to much of Australia was over.

The third year of the La Nina influence has also been credited for some of the best farming seasons for decades.

The same weather experts are predicting a 50/50 chance the tropical Pacific's La Nina will come back later in the year.

Plus the long-term predictions of above average rains for the rest of the year are still current.

Forecasters have been watching the weather system decline over the past few weeks as sea temperatures and winds in the Pacific Ocean changed.

The official status for La Nina is now on "watch" which the bureau said is likely to be the pattern over winter.

They say most of their climate models spell out neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation levels - neither La Nina nor El Nino - for the southern hemisphere.

The bureau's head of long-range forecasting, Dr Andrew Watkins, said the bureau has been monitoring this trend of a weakening La Nina over several weeks.

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"A La Nina watch does not change the outlook of above average rainfall for most of Australia over coming months," Dr Watkins said.

"The bureau's long-range outlook remains wetter-than-average, consistent with model outlooks from other global forecast centres, reflecting a range of climate drivers including a developing negative Indian Ocean Dipole and warmer-than-average waters around Australia," he said.

"Sea surface temperatures are currently warmer than average for much of the Australian coastline, particularly to the north and west. This pattern is likely to increase the chance of above average winter-spring rainfall for Australia."

The World Meteorological Organisation last week said there are "long-lead predictions" the rain driver will continue into next year as well - the first La Nina triple whammy for more than half a century.

"Rainfall predictions suggest Australia will continue to see above-average rainfall over the coming months," the WMO said in the global weather update.

Dr Watkins said the IOD was currently neutral.

"But all climate model outlooks surveyed suggest a negative IOD is likely to form in the coming months."

Rainfall across eastern and southern Australia is typically above average during winter and spring during a negative IOD.

Also, University of New South Wales climatologist Matthew England has said the climate-change inspired shift in complex interlinking weather patterns may lead to Australia experiencing La Nina like conditions far more often.

He said there was extensive concern about what such a change in climate would mean, but added Australia's agricultural heartland could be one of the few winners.

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