Racing: Neil Evans tips for Tamworth Jockey Club's October 11 meeting

Mon Oct 11, 2021

FULL TAB MEETING

1st Race @ 1.55pm

*Track downgraded to Heavy 9 and Rail out +2m:

*ALL races carry a BOBS Silver Bonus up to $9625.00

*RACE 1 @ 1.55pm GOOD LUCK ICE IN VANCOUVER MAIDEN HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55.5kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

We open up with a competitive & tricky maiden on what could be a testing read with heavy rain forecast. In a race of several chances, expecting sharp improvement from provincial-based Rubick three-year-old 4. THREETIMESLUCKY (Allan Denham/Ashley Morgan; 56.5kg) after one run back when he was well supported in the market. Bred to handle rain-affected going, and even at this early stage of his career boasts the most progressive profile.

*MAIN DANGERS: Fellow provincial colt 3. Senseiche can also improve second-up with blinkers added. Local five-year-old 5. Fields Of Red is still trying to break through at his 26th start, but he's been close-up in a couple of handy maidens, draws to get a soft run on-speed, and is rock hard fit.

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Betting Attack: THREETIMESLUCKY to WIN and Box Exacta: 3,4,5

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*RACE 2 @ 2.35pm GOOD LUCK EDIT MAIDEN PLATE (1400m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

It doesn't get much easier in this maiden, but lightly raced Northern Hemisphere-bred three-year-old 11. MONTARI (Paul Messara/Dylan Gibbons a0k; 56.5kg) is the one to beat after hitting the line in two runs to launch his career. Perhaps not overly suited on the smaller and tighter track, but he's drawn to stay out of trouble, and has more than enough ability in this company.

*MAIN DANGERS: Progressive and tough local four-year-old 3. Royal Confession is drawn wide, but can peak over an ideal trip. Has finished well into the placings all three runs this prep, and the weight is again off-set by a 2kg claim. Keep safe provincial four-year-old 2. Owned Up who resumes off a quiet trial; while a big gap to the rest.

Likely Tempo: Fair to Solid

My Betting Attack: MONTARI to WIN & Quinella: 3 and 11

*RACE 3 @ 3.10pm MELBOURNE CUP DAY PACKAGES ON SALE TUESDAY MAIDEN PLATE (1000m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

Early positioning will of course be vital over the short course. Keen on improving Nicconi filly 11. CUPID'S KISS (John Ramsey/Daniel Northey; 55kg) fourth-up coming through some handy maidens. Bred to handle these conditions, and was preferred here to Coonamble on Sunday.

*MAIN DANGERS: Big watch on home track four-year-old 2. Distant Secret who resumes off a long break without officially trialling; while four-year-old mare 5. Discompose also resumes with some key gear changes, and finished close-up in her only previous heavy track start.

Likely Tempo: Solid to Good

My Betting Attack: CUPID'S KISS to WIN

*RACE 4 @ 3.50pm CARLTON DRY OPEN HCP (1000m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

Veen keen on speedy six-year old mare 7. MISS POWERBELLE (Cameron Crockett/Christian Reith; 55.5kg) who can resume with a bang off two progressive trials in very suitable ground. Boasts a smart fresh record, and before spelling easily beat a handy BM 74 field in heavy going, and like the fact she's drawn to stay out towards the middle.

*MAIN DANGERS: Honest local six-year-old 2. Lord Tony has only missed a place once from nine starts at home, and resumes from the inside draw. Consistent sprinter, although wetter the track gets the more his claim will likely diminish.

Likely Tempo: Good

My Betting Attack: MISS POWERBELLE to WIN

*RACE 5 @ 4.25pm CIVILCON CLASS 1 & MAIDEN PLATE (1600m) - Set Weights; Apprentices Can Claim:

A tactical battle at set weights over the mile. Promising Panzer Division four-year-old 4. FREEDOM SQUARE (Paul Messara/Aaron Bullock; 59kg) finds a suitable race second-up. Was bustled and left without cover, sitting way too close on a good speed resuming, and can be ridden quieter here and eased to the outside under a new jockey. First time in these conditions, but sire was a dominant Group 3 winner in heavy ground. A good thing!

*MAIN DANGERS: Tough five-year-old 2. Capital Venture was strong through the line over this distance after finishing best to claim his maiden, but some query from the low draw if he gets too far off the speed. Included in exotics under-rated six-year-old 5. Let Him Fly who jumps in class, but relishes these conditions; and at big odds 1. Barellan Bandit third-up.

Likely Tempo: Reasonable

My Betting Attack: FREEDOM SQUARE to WIN and Trifecta 4/1,2,5/1,2,5

*RACE 6 @ 5.05pm TAB.COM.AU BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1400m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

Two runners stand out in this one. Liked the way underrated Sebring four-year-old 3. RED BERYL (Jane Clement/Ms Mikayla Weir; 60kg) worked home from well back in a handy CL2 at this track after scoring the previous start. Already a soft track winner, and steps up in trip at the right time.

*MAIN DANGERS: The more it rains, the better it will suit capable wet track mare 6. Deep Mirror who comes off a smart CL2 win fourth-up, and is the clear threat drawn to stay out in the middle. Keep safe honest six-year-old mare 8. Yulong Monoceros who comes back in grade, and handles the wet. Big gap to the rest.

Likely Tempo: Fair

My Betting Attack: RED BERYL Each Way; Quinella: 3 and 6; Trifecta: 3,6/3,6,8/3,6,8

*RACE 7 @ 5.40pm COURTHOUSE HOTEL TAMWORTH CLASS 3 HCP (1200m) - Min Weight 55kg; Apprentices Can Claim:

Always had a big liking for talented four-year-old 3. RAOUL (Cameron Crockett/Christian Reith; 60.5kg) who swept home for a dominant maiden win first-up off a lengthy break. Doesn't appear well weighted jumping sharply to this grade, but has a stack of ability, and relishes rain-affected going.

*MAIN DANGERS: Keep safe local five-year-old 5. Absolute Legend down significantly in weight second-up; while tough six-year-old 8. Joey's Chance has finished hard into a place all three runs this prep, and over the odds here.

Likely Tempo: Solid

My Betting Attack: RAOUL to WIN

**My BEST EARLY BETS:

R1 4. THREETIMESLUCKY* Expect: $3.60 - $3.85; My Early Rating: $2.40

R4 7. MISS POWERBELLE** Expect: $2.15 - $2.30; My Early Rating: $1.88

R7 3. RAOUL** Expect: $3.00 - $3.10; My Early Rating: $2.10

**My BEST EARLY VALUE:

R6 3. RED BERYL* Expect: $7.50 - $8.00; My Early Rating: $4.00

**My BEST EARLY EXOTICS:

R1: **Box Exacta: 3,4,5

**TRAINERS TO FOLLOW:

Paul Messara**

Cameron Crockett**

Nathan Doyle*

**JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW:

Christian Reith*

Dylan Gibbons*