Tamworth homelessness services have been overwhelmed by a wave of new residents seeking help, an emerging crisis they blame on a spike in Tamworth rents.
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An influx of people moving out of the city to regional areas has seen any affordable or cheaper rental vacancies snapped up across the city.
Homes North CEO Maree McKenzie said she's concerned some of Tamworth most vulnerable residents could be driven out of the rental market altogether when several government support programs like JobKeeper and JobSeeker end in weeks.
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"The rental market is really tightening up, particularly in Tamworth. We're getting more and more people coming to us who have lost their tenancies and we're assisting them with finding alternative accommodation - that's definitely increased," she said.
"We're assisting people enough to keep them off the streets. We're putting them in temporary accommodation and then we are finding solutions for them, but it's taking us longer to find a solution and the solution options are getting tighter and less.
"What we're concerned about is when JobSeeker reduces and JobKeeper drops off in March. What we're already experiencing is going to be exacerbated and will increase."
A recent Homes North street count located just five 'rough sleepers' - people who sleep in the open air - on Tamworth streets in February 2021. That's down from seven at the same time in 2020. Two of this year's street sleepers recently moved to Tamworth from out of town.
A much larger group of homeless people - about 200 in the New England North West - don't have a consistent place to sleep every night. Many 'couch surf' between the homes of friends.
Homes North has seen a dramatic increase in the number of people seeking assistance to avoid entering that group since the end of January, Ms McKenzie said.
She said if nothing is done there will be an increase in homelessness in Tamworth.
"What we're concerned about is the people who are in housing at the moment and their housing is threatened because of increasing rents. Notices of terminations can be issued now. People who have had a moratorium on rent payments now have a rental debt that they're trying to repay. All of this is accumulating," she said.
"Most people in the housing sector across Australia are concerned about this. Especially March when people who are already under financial stress, will have reduced income in March."
Homelessness services successfully housed most homeless people in NSW at the peak of the pandemic crisis, after receiving financial support through the Together Home scheme. Designed to eliminate a potential vector for COVID-19 it also helped drive local homelessness to record lows.
Together Home funding is set to increase, Ms McKenzie said.
But she said government needs to build more social and public housing in Tamworth to house the most vulnerable.
"There are a range of subsidies that we can support people with in the private market, but those subsidies can only stretch so far. How much more funding is available? That's where we will need to advocate as a housing provider," she said.
"For community members who are locals and this is their community it's really important that we support them to stay and live well in our communities. If we don't keep our eye on the affordability of housing, it's the most significant expenditure for most people. It impacts their lives very quickly. It's pivotal to the health of the local economy as well."