The Bureau's Summer Climate Outlook forecasts hot, wet summer for Tamworth

The Bureau of Meteorology forecast released on Thursday estimates Tamworth is "likely" to receive more summer rain than average.

The city has a 60 per cent chance of a drenching of at least 250mm of accumulated rainfall by February, the Summer Climate Outlook says.

We're also in for a hot summer - the Bureau says the region has a "very high" chance of consistently beating its 30.3 degree average.

Night-time minimum temperatures are also expected to be warmer than average.

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The city was forecast to receive some 200mm over Spring, given an 80 per cent chance of above-average rainfall by the BoM.

In the three months since September, just 103.4mm fell at the Bureau's airport weather station.

Tamworth weather observer David Farrenden, who owns the Tamworth and Region weather page, said the city will get its first heatwave this weekend, before potential storms late next week.

He said records could even be broken in the unusually early wave. The November record high of 41.9 is likely to be reached, he said.

"These are temperatures you normally see in January. Areas of the plains look like they could get a whole week above 40. We're looking at three days above 40, which is a bit unusual," he said.

"Tell everyone to keep their airconditioner going, it's going to be quite warm!"

He estimated there is a 50-50 chance of the region getting enough rainfall to fill all the dams - because nobody knows if it will fall in the right spots.

Compared with the previous two years, 2020 has already proven a relatively wet year, gradually bringing to an end the region's worst-ever drought.

Regional dam levels are gradually increasing, with Chaffey Dam 33.5 per cent full on Thursday.

The Bureau's Head of Operational Climate Services Dr Andrew Watkins said La Nina is still expected to deliver a wet summer, with an increased risk of flooding in large parts of eastern Australia.

"Our climate outlook is the opposite of what we experienced last year in Australia. This summer, New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland are expected to see above average rainfall, meaning we face an increased risk of widespread floods," he said.

Dr Watkins said there is substantially less risk of bushfires, but "there's a great chance of grass fires" in some parts of the country.

He warned the expected prolonged high temperatures and humidity this season could drive summer heatwaves and cause a "significant impact on human health".

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