New England business blames state's worst business confidence on renewed lockdowns, border closure

Member for Northern Tablelands Adam Marshall said the store had its best sales year on record last year, and he was "flabbergasted" by the announcement by the Woolworths Group.

"I'm still perplexed by their decision. The Big W store in Armidale has had its strongest 12 months of trading in almost its whole history of being in Armidale," he said.

"And the Woolworths group does not dispute that fact.

"I struggle to understand the economic basis for their decision."

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But the closure of the Big W store is just the latest bad economic news for the region.

A Business NSW survey shows the New England region's business community, which includes both Armidale and Tamworth, had the worst confidence of any in the state. Regional business confidence was down a shocking 88.6 per cent in the latest survey results.

Business NSW Regional Manager Joe Townsend said business confidence was improving after hitting "rock bottom" in the June quarter.

But the business outlook had brightened earlier this year with easing drought conditions and the rollback of COVID-19 restrictions, until additional coronavirus lockdown rules caused renewed pessimism.

"Businesses were only just at the starting gate for drought recovery, then COVID-19 hit. With approximately a quarter of New England North West Businesses reporting they are at a high risk of failure, many have now well and truly exhausted their capital and savings," he said.

The closure of the Armidale Big W comes on the heels of the announcement of $20 million in job cuts at the University of New England, the city's biggest employer.

Mr Marshall said the Woolworths Group had posted a billion-dollar profit and paid $3.1 billion in shareholder dividends last year and condemned the decision to slash 47 workers during the COVID-19 crisis.

Asked if the closure would have a negative effect on business confidence, he said he wasn't really concerned.

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"I'm led to believe that on the quiet there will be another quite large retail business starting up in Armidale in that very same spot that Big W are vacating. So it may well be that we lose Big W but gain another business we don't currently have."

CH on Peel owner Jye Segboer said the region's proximity to Queensland was a contributing factor to the lack of business confidence.

"We are a halfway point between Sydney and Brisbane, so if we're not getting that passing traffic through inland in particular, then confidence in terms of tourism, hospitality and accommodation isn't going to return until we do see those borders open up again," he said.

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As a business owner working through the coronavirus crisis, he said "every day is a challenge".

"You can't really set forecasts or plan for the future because it's out of your hands.

"Traditionally you'd be able to put in place a roadmap for business, whether it be across a three month, six month or 12 month period.

"What we're seeing now is there is no forecast. You can start one day with nothing booked and then by the end of the day be either half full or completely booked out. And then the next day is completely the opposite.

"There's not really any pattern or opportunity to forecast anything because every day is an unknown."

The survey estimates local unemployment at 5.3 per cent, with youth unemployment at 12.1 per cent. Business confidence statewide had plummeted 70 per cent, but was particularly poor in the New England North West, Sydney, Riverina and Central Coast regions.

Local business confidence is down 52.8 per cent over the last four quarters.

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