Only the coming weeks and months can tell us how long the necessary social isolation measures will continue, and whether they are to be successful minimising the rate of infection within Australia and keeping Australians safe.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
or signup to continue reading
The economic and social effects will be generational, particularly in rural and regional Australia. Decades-old certainties have been overturned in a fortnight.
The Morrison Government, quick to denigrate the Rudd GFC stimulus package - which kept Australia from recession and unemployment in 2008-2009 - has launched an unprecedented $300 billion stimulus, including $130 billion in wage subsidies that they ridiculed just three weeks ago.
It remains to be seen whether the package will do enough to protect Australian jobs. The OECD predicts Australia may lose 22% of its GDP in the next six months, a decline that is faster and steeper than the Great Depression. That represents the end of nearly 30 years of endless economic growth largely built on economic reform in the Hawke and Keating period.
This growth did not reach every community. Regional Australia lost out, as wealth, opportunity and good jobs drained from the regions into the big cities. Country towns, robbed of good jobs by globalisation, the shift to casual work, technological change, the withdrawal of public services and infrastructure, are reservoirs of poverty and inequality.
They should be good places to live and work, communities that support young people into good jobs with thriving businesses.
This crisis has undermined many assumptions about Australia's place in the world: that our position in a globalised trade network was stable, that economic growth was limitless and would eventually trickle down to all parts of the country, that the trend towards precarious work would have no consequences.
Most importantly, that a narrow policy focus on debt and deficit excluded a debate about value, productivity and the real economy.
The COVID-19 crisis just lays all of this bare. It should serve as a wake-up call, an opportunity to remake Australia's regional economies to deliver better social and economic outcomes for country towns.
The crisis will end, and it is time to start the conversation about what our economy and our society will look like in its wake.
Scott Morrison believes that "there is a snapback to the previous existing arrangements on the other side of this." But a 'snapback' misses the point - regional Australia needs a lot more than a return to normal.
Australia has two real post-COVID19 options: aggressive cuts to government services in a narrow debt reduction, cutback and privatisation programme on one hand or a credible commitment to national reconstruction on the other. That choice will shape Australian politics for the next generations and has real consequences for rural and regional Australia.
Reconstruction provides a generational opportunity to reshape regional Australia. The period of post-WWII reconstruction built modern Australia. Australian manufacturing boomed, national infrastructure like the Snowy scheme was built, and regional Australia was at the centre of economic development and opportunity. It required intelligent leadership from government and institutional cooperation across business, unions and government driven by imperatives like full employment and national self-reliance.
There is a lot to do now - but here are just a few ideas.
Firstly, let's get serious about dealing with climate change and its opportunities for regional Australia. Investment in wind, solar and grid stabilisation is cheaper than new coal power, lowers emissions and delivers new jobs. Cheaper electricity means Australia can drag back investment in jobs and industries like aluminium and steel processing, lithium battery production and complex manufacturing. Carbon farming in agriculture, and 'caring for country' initiatives on native title and public land offer significant income opportunities for farmers and work in small towns.
Secondly, national self-reliance and secure supply chains require a commitment to rebuild Australian manufacturing. Regional Australia should be the heartland of turning agricultural commodities into manufactured product to export around the world.
Thirdly, Australian agriculture needs a revitalisation. Reviving food processing, supporting small family farming and creating good jobs in agriculture. Re-investing in public agricultural research and development and finding other ways of supporting farming families. It has been too easy to access cheap, vulnerable temporary labour for on-farm work. That is just not sustainable in a post-COVID19 world, and it is high time we took a good hard look at bridging the gap between labour shortages in critical industries and local unemployment.
Fourth, Australia's apprenticeship and training system is a smoking wreck after decades of privatisation, deregulation and government neglect. TAFE is hollowed out, and hundreds of thousands of young Australians have missed out on an apprenticeship or good training opportunity. Restore the public system and give school-leavers and employers a chance to build decent jobs that families can count on.
Finally, the COVID19 crisis has revealed that so many jobs described as 'unskilled', are actually critical. It is an opportunity to revolutionise care industries: aged care, healthcare, disability services and early childhood, and jobs like cleaning, recital and logistics that have been underpaid and undervalued for too long. Too many jobs that should be permanent are casual and under-valued. It has been unsustainable for decades - this crisis demonstrates it's time to bring the balance back in Australia's workplaces.
Australians are staying socially isolated to look after each other and keep us safe.
The values that drive our commitment to each other during the crisis should shape our approach to the reconstruction of the Australian economy.
It is the best chance we will have to make Australia stronger and fairer, particularly in the Bush.
Senator Tim Ayres is a federal senator for NSW
