The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has revealed the first three months of 2020, January 1 to March 31, will likely see hotter temperatures and an unlikely increase of rainfall from the median average.
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BOM statistics reveal an 83 per cent chance of temperatures in 2020, from January to April, exceeding the maximum median average for Dubbo of 28.8 degrees celsius.
BOM senior climatologist Robyn Duell said the warmer conditions we've experienced in 2019 was driven mainly by the very strong, positive Indian Ocean dipole and the negative Southern Annular Mode.
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According to BOM, a dipole is two electrical charges, one negative and one positive. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) describes how this band (electric charge) moves, either north towards the equator (negative) or south towards Antarctica (positive).
In a negative SAM phase, the belt of westerly winds expands towards the equator, shifting the westerly winds to the north in summer means less moist onshore flow from the east, and thus typically decreases rainfall over eastern Australia.
"The good news is, these drivers (dipole and mode) have now started to weaken. The not-so-good news is the effects of these drivers are likely to linger," Ms Duell said.
"If we look at the first quarter of 2020, we can see that days remain likely warmer than average.
"Evenings are also likely to be warmer than average. So again, a continuation of that elevated risk of bushfires and heatwaves will likely continue into the first quarter of 2020.
"In terms of rainfall, we have quite a neutral outlook.
"For most of Australia, there's no strong indication either way of it being particularly wet, or particularly dry."
Ms Duell said as the drivers continue weakening the chance of rainfall for the first quarter of 2020 will continue to increase, meaning there is still time for our chances of rain to improve.
Taylor Dodge
Your story matters, your voice deserves to be heard and I would love to help you share it. I have six years of experience as a Journalist with Australian Community Media covering an array of topics, with a key focus on breaking news and crime and a passion for people. E: taylor.dodge@austcommunitymedia.com.au.
Your story matters, your voice deserves to be heard and I would love to help you share it. I have six years of experience as a Journalist with Australian Community Media covering an array of topics, with a key focus on breaking news and crime and a passion for people. E: taylor.dodge@austcommunitymedia.com.au.
