FEBRUARY looks like Tamworth’s best bet for a drop of rain.
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A Southern Annular Mode, also known as SAM, could see rain systems bring moist air off the coast to the country music capital.
“That’s what our model is suggesting during February which is quite positive for the area which has had a dry year,” Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Felicity Gamble said.
“Our models aren’t diagnostic, but the outlook suggests for February we have a 60 to 70 per cent chance of above normal rainfall for Tamworth.”
While February might bring the rain, temperatures show little signs of cooling off, with the mercury expected to reach an average of 31.6 degrees.
The nights will be warmer as well, more cloud cover over the next month is expected to trap daytime heat.
January obliterated the previous record by two degrees, we’re seeing the potential for average conditions to be blown out of the water.
- Felicity Gamble
There are a couple of indicators that Tamworth is in for an El Nino event, bringing with it reduced rainfall and warmer temperatures.
Autumn will be the clincher and if El Nino locks in Tamworth can expect a drier than average winter and spring.
But, February is also Tamworth’s most unpredictable weather month – copping 257mm of rain in 2012 and just 0.8mm in 2016.
“Looking at the Tamworth Airport site, the mean rainfall for February is about 70.5mm,” Ms Gamble said.
“It can be very variable, it’s the most variable month throughout the year.”
The forecast comes after Tamworth experienced its hottest January on record, shocking even climatologists with the severity of temperatures.
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“January came in at five degrees above normal which is pretty phenomenal,” Ms Gamble said.
“The records are usually beaten by 0.1 to 0.2 degrees.
“January obliterated the previous record by two degrees, we’re seeing the potential for average conditions to be blown out of the water.”
Taking that into account the potential for above average temperatures to continue is high.
“The next few months will be vital for what we see happening, whether we click into El Nino threshold,” Ms Gamble said.
El Nino weather events bring with them increased frost risk and fire danger in southeast Australia.