2019 NSW election: Tamworth could be determined by preference flow

Incumbent Nationals MP Kevin Anderson, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers’ candidate Jeff Bacon and independent Mark Rodda are all vying for a portion of the region’s large conservative vote.

Tim Battin, a senior political lecturer at the University of New England, said it was a “volatile situation”, and one far less predictable than a federal election, as state elections allow voters to number just one box without nominating any further preferences.

“Not only can we not be sure where the preferences will go, we can’t even be sure that there is going to be a full preference flow,” Dr Battin said.

“The Nationals, and any major party for that fact, are more vulnerable in a sphere where there is optional preferential voting.”

Mr Anderson has already called for a first-past-the-post system, which suggests the sitting MP is concerned how the preferences will flow.

However, within the Tamworth electorate, it’s possible that Mr Bacon and Mr Rodda will split the “alternative conservative” vote, leaving the door open for Mr Anderson.

“We might see a situation where the people who vote for Rodda and the Fishers, Shooters and Farmers party don’t allocate a preference,” Dr Battin said.

“If the majority don’t, it’s possible that Kevin Anderson won’t really move far off his current majority.”

Where Labor’s Stephen Mears directs his preferences will also be important.

Read also: Tell us your number one issue for the 2019 NSW election | Poll

Dr Battin said there was a growing trend of voters bucking major parties in favour of an independent.

“It’s ebbed and flowed over the past 20 years, but it’s very much a clear trend at both the state and federal level,” he said.

“Voters are now well and truly willing to look at an independent.”

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